I have often wanted to write something about Iraq and US/UK policy there. However having started blogging in 2006 I imagined that most things that could be said had already been said by then. However, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto will sadly probably ensure that there is further instability in the countries from the Middle East to India. I am not an able thinker on politics, let alone geopolitics, but I find old strands of thought coming to the surface again especially with regard to the West's policy on energy.
There has been a lot that disturbed me about the US/UK invasion of Iraq. In the runup to the invasion I had really accepted the argument that if Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass distruction that he cold potentially unleash on Israel, Saudi Arabia or Iran this was sufficiently dangerous to warrant an invasion. I unfortunately believed the untruths that were being propagated by our Government then but at the same time was disturbed by quite a few things:
- I was aware that Britain had no moral high ground with regard to Iraq, having helped arm Iraq against Iran in the 1980s. Our politicians and news media were very quiet when Saddam was using poison gas on their Iranian enemies.
- The Bush administration seemed to be justifying the attack on Iraq due to the 11 September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. Duh... wasn't al Qaida based in Afghanistan not Iraq then? Didn't the militant islamists see Saddam Hussein as an enemy just as much as they saw the West?
- Friends in the British military privately expressed doubts about the ethics of the invasion. As they are very ethical people that I trust this was worrying.
- There was oil in Iraq but not in other places with bad regimes e.g. Zimbabwe or Myanmar.
Of course, the Iraq invasion (with the benefit of hindsight) has been disastrous. Around the time of the invasion, much of Iraq's infrastructure was ransacked by angry Iraqis with no resistance from invading forces. Terrorists have moved into Iraq. The country has been split by inter-community fighting (Shiite versus Sunni, etc). Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced including most of Iraq's ancient Christian community; before the war roughly 8% of the population.
From the UK point of view, we are engaged in two theatres - Iraq and Afghanistan. However having tried to reap the 'peace dividend' from the end of the cold war this is a huge stretch. A lot of the British military infrastructure has been either privatised or civilian techniques such as 'just in time' supply chains have driven down cost. However, cost reductions have also led to helicopters being cannibalised and a rapid ramp-up of supplies to meet an emergency is virtually impossible today. Britain's military expenditure and political commitments requiring military involvement have diverged dramatically.
We have not done ourselves any favours. Bush and Blair talked about bringing 'rule of law' and 'democracy' to Iraq. That was hypocritical particularly for the US - who have deliberately exploited legal grey areas in Guantanamo Bay and who have a shabby record with prisoners in Iraq. If 'rule of law' means you can define grey zones to do what you like what good example is that? By "standing shoulder to shoulder" with something wrong we are also culpable in the UK.
Standing back a bit, I am amazed that the US and to a lesser extent Western Europe has not learned the lessons of the early 1970s. In 1973, OPEC increased oil prices by 70% precipitating a worldwide economic crisis. Strangely the US, as world nr 1 oil producer then, was very hard hit. They assumed that they could rely on almost limitless cheap energy supplies from their own oilfields or from the Middle East. Unfortunately although gas guzzling cars went on the decline there was no major change in their energy profligacy.
Moving on more than thirty years the West has not got any more energy independence than in 1973. There is still a great dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Iraq is in a mess. Iran has not had a friendly relationship with the west. Saudi Arabia while considered an 'ally' is home to a militant brand of islamism that may topple the house of Saud. Instability in Pakistan just makes that part of the world worse.
In 1973 the Soviet Union and allies were in enmity to the West. However. a lot has changed since then. Russia now is proven to be very energy rich especially in natural gas. Yet, despite much in common with the West for example fears of terrorism, the West's relationship to Russia has become frosty.
All in all, this looks pretty grim for the West's fossil fuel supplies. Although I think it is important anyway - due to climate change - to use less energy and to use more renewal sources, geopolitics alone ought to force this on the West urgently.
Despite the well-publicised international initiatives of recent British governments on climate change, we are profligate in our energy usage. Much of the British housing stock is poorly insulated meaning that massive amounts of energy are wasted. Poor habits - e.g. airport conveyor belts that run continuously even when there is no luggage - make us far more wasteful than most of our neighbours in Europe. SUVs are on the increase. It is time to wake up and save energy and to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
